Friday, February 18, 2005

Perfect balanced sample

Yes Prime Minister series 1 episodes 1-4

P was considering interviewing people about certain work-related issues and, instantly, I was reminded of one of my favourite exchanges from that grand-father of all sitcom scripts "yes (prime) minister". So, while I'm at it, I might as well pay a tribute.

Ludicrous Govt and civil service plots written in the 1980's by the Anthony Jay and the irrepressible Jonathan Lynn (who astoundingly also wrote the starkly different 'my cousin vinny'!) amazingly played themselves out in real life politics 15 years later!

Back to the issue at hand, this is a conversation where Sir Humphrey is telling Bernard how to design a survey for opinions on introduction of a national service, so he gets the result he's already decided.
Listen .

Sir Humphrey: "You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don't want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think they respond to a challenge?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Oh...well, I suppose I might be."
Sir Humphrey: "Yes or no?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can't say no to that. So they don't mention the first five questions and they publish the last one."
Bernard Woolley: "Is that really what they do?"
Sir Humphrey: "Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren't many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result."
Bernard Woolley: "How?"
Sir Humphrey: "Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the growth of armaments?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample."

1 Comments:

At 4:35 PM, Blogger Prashanth Pappu said...

Ok since we are going public with this, I wasn't going to interview or survey anyone, I was just going to have a "chat" with them.

But you make a good point. It is difficult to take a stand (with conviction) on most issues these days. Should US bomb Iraq? Uh.. maybe etc.

So statistically speaking, it is clear that out of 10 issues, you'll have most of the people agreeing with your stance on 5 of them. The key, as the Republicans clearly showed, is not to get them to agree with your stance on the other 5 (because there is no conviction here but just pseudo-random impulsiveness) but to make your 5 issues the "more important issues". The Republicans executed this strategy very well by playing to the conservative church going Americans.

There are lessons here for the BJP as well.

 

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